Saturday, August 25, 2012

Dharamsala the Cherrapunji of North India gets 1000 mm in last 10 days

Dharamsala the Cherrapunji of North India has got around 2900 mm for the SWM Season till 25th August and 3350 mm from the start of the year 2012. The following are heavy heavy rainfall it got for the past 10 days.

14th August - 160 mm
15th August - 38 mm
16th August - 30 mm
17th August - 4 mm
18th August - 186 mm
19th August - 21 mm
20th August - 182 mm
21st August - 87 mm
22nd August - 98 mm
23rd August - 12 mm
24th August - 184 mm
25th August - 128 mm

It has on an average got around 1000 mm in the last 10 days.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Cherrapunji crosses 10000 mm for the year 2012

Peninsula Giants in Maharashtra and Karnataka stole the show in August with stations such as Kollur, Agumbe, Kitwade, Amboli, Shiragon, Tamini and Dawdi all getting close to 2000 mm in 20 days in August.

Cherrapunji, after posting monstrous rainfalls of 3600 mm in July and 3450 mm in June 2012, August was silent till yesterday with just 500 mm till 19th. Yesterday it got around 105 mm and followed it with a 384 mm today. I posted earlier that Cherrapunji would cross 10000 mm mark by mid August.

Here is the list of instances in past few years, when Cherrapunji has crossed 10000 mm and the date of crossing is as follows -

2012 - 21st August, 2012 (10298 mm till date)
2011 - it did not cross 10000 mm for the year (ended year at 8372 mm)
2010 - 23rd July, 2010 (ended year at 13472 mm)
2009 - it did not cross 10000 mm for the year (ended year at 9070 mm)

Will it cross 14000 mm mark for the year, i dont think so personally. In last 20 years of rainfall in Cherrapunji it managed to cross 14000 mm mark only thrice.

1995 - 14210 mm
1998 - 14537 mm
2004 - 14791 mm

Last time when hell broke loose in Cherrapunji in a Calender Year was in 1974 when  it got around 24555 mm rainfall with 8205 mm falling in July alone.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Reduction in rainfall across Kerala over past century with Peermade Annual Rainfall reduced from 5165 mm from 4428 mm

Peermade (-737 mm), Kottayam (-404), Punalur (-399), Tiruvalla (-361) and Alappuzha (-269) are those stations in the State which have witnessed significant reduction in their annual rainfall during the last century. Y.E.A. Raj, Deputy Director-General, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, revealed this during a special address at the Kerala Environment Congress 2012 here. 

The topic of his address was ‘Extent of climate change over India and its projected impact on Indian agriculture.’Climate change in respect of individual stations manifests with mixed trends with positive and negative changes, he said. For instance, positive trends are available from stations such as Kochi (+ 100.6 mm) and Kasaragod (+153.5 mm) in annual rainfall in the State.

“It must be stated here that rainfall series for individual months/seasons in some of the series may have shown a significant trend.In some other cases, these trends would have manifested only recently.
“A more detailed analysis of time series must be performed to detect and analyse such incidence,” Raj said. 

The scenario of significant climate change, especially global warming, is now well documented and the evidence incontrovertible. However, in the Indian context, there appears to be no clear signal of such change at least in crucial parameters such as rainfall and occurrence of cyclonic storms. 

Projected climate change based on various models suggests steady increase in temperature and, at a later stage, slight increase in rainfall. The effect on agriculture is likely to be mixed, Raj said. The increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere initially favours agricultural production.But increase in temperature would have exactly the reverse effect. The situation is fluid and could even be seen to be contradictory at times. This calls for learnt and measures responses based on scientific facts free from transnational biases. 

Source : Business Line

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Amgaon in Karnataka is the New Cherrapunji of South India displaces both Hulikal & Agumbe

Residents at Hulikal in the Shimoga district, who had been basking in the fame of their village replacing its neighbour in Shimoga district, Agumbe, as the Cherrapunji of South India, have some disheartening news. Amagaon, a remote village in North Karnataka, now wears that crown.

A resident of Amagaon in Khanapur taluk walks to his village on a rainy day. DH photo/M R Manjunath
The tiny Amagaon, which nestles in the dense forests of the Western Ghats in the Khanapur taluk of Belgaum district
has reached the magical figure of 10,000 mm annual rainfall twice in the last six years. The surroundings of the village located in the Bhimgad Wildlife Sanctuary have been declared a protected area for medicinal plants.

Thrice in the last six year, Amgaon received more rain than Agumbe and Hulikal. In the last two years (2010 and 2011), it received more rain than its peers in in the heart of Malnad, the region in central-west Karnataka which literally means region of rain. In 2011, Agumbe got 7733 mm and Hulikal around 8700 mm. While Amagaon got around 9105 mm.

Of course, Cherrapunji in Meghalaya, the byword for rain for over a century, has been overtaken by Mawsynram, its neighbour. The average rainfall in both places is in 11,800 mm rain each year, with Mawynram just a nose ahead. The world record, held by Cherrapunji, is a monstrous 26,461 mm recorded between August 1, 1860, and July 31, 1861. Mawsynram almost snatched that record with 26,000 mm in 1985. Amgaon is not in the same league, but recording 10,000 mm is not to be scoffed at. At least, outside the two rain record holders in Meghalaya.

The tiny village is a paradise for nature lovers and trekkers. In monsoon, the Bail Nala, a tributary of the Malaprabha river, blocks the bumpy road to Amgaon, making a two-km walk mandatory.Part of the Amate Gram Panchayat, this village is at a distance of around 35 km from Khanapur town. “We have around 70 houses here. The population of about 300 speak Marathi. Paddy is the main crop. We have a lower primary school in our village, and a government doctor visits the place every Tuesday. If we need to go to the town, we have to walk for about seven km in the forest to catch a bus. In summer, MUVs ferry people to and from our village,” says Laxman Sahadev Ghadi, a resident of Amgaon.

Siddappa Y Barki, a forest guard who visits the village almost daily, feels the residents there are very healthy and are accustomed to heavy rainfall.

Though the arrival of monsoon was delayed this time, Amgaon received 4541 mm rainfall till  August 15, 2012. In the similar period, Agumbe has got 4883 mm and Kollur another HRF (Heavy Rainfall station in Karnataka got 4676 mm.

Source: Deccan Herald

Rainfall figures in mm in Chennai Region on 18.08.2012



Though the rain in Chennai was not widespread, we got food rains. Here is the rainfall figure ending 8.30 am on 18.08.2012


Tiruttani - 20
Kancheepuram - 20
Arakonam - 20
Chennai (IMD) – 14
Chennai (Kea) – 14
Puzhal – 12
Redhills – 11
Chemberabakkam – 11
Poonamalle - 10
Kaveripakkam - 10
RK Pet (IMD) – 7
Chennai AP – 4
Madhavaram – 3

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Heavy Rain lashes Kerala for past 2 days. Heavyweight HRF Neeriamangalam bounces back

Among the southern Indian divisional rainfall, Kerala got the most deficient rainfall of -37% for the week ending 15.08.2012.

However, for the past two, it alone is getting battered in the Southern Peninsula and deficiency is reduced by 4% to 33% as on 18.08.2012. Here is the SWM departure % as on 18.08.2012\\

  • COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH  +8% (Normal)
  • TELENGANA -3% (Normal)
  • RAYALASEEMA -12% (Normal)
  • TAMILNADU & PONDICHERRY -18% (Normal)
  • N. I. KARNATAKA -36% (Deficient)
  • S. I. KARNATAKA -32% (Deficient)
  • KERALA -33% (Deficient)

Neeriamangalam - 520 mm in last 5 days 

14th - 70 mm
15th - 80 mm
16th - 130 mm
17th - 160 mm
18th - 80 mm

Keerampara - 280 mm in last 4 days

15th - 40 mm
16th - 40 mm
17th - 120 mm
18th - 80 mm

Peermade - 260 mm in last 4 days

15th - 40 mm
16th - 50 mm
17th - 100 mm
18th - 70 mm

Vazhathope - 220 mm in last 4 days

15th - 50 mm
16th - 25 mm
17th - 100 mm
18th - 45 mm
 

Thodupuzha - 220 mm in last 3 days

16th - 55 mm
17th - 115 mm
18th - 50 mm

Vadakara - 180 mm on 18.08.2012

Thursday, August 16, 2012

All India SWM Rainfall Toppers - 01.06.12 to 15.08.12 - Cherrapuni Lead shrinks as Kollur and Agumbe bounce back

It is 75 days into the monsoon, the lead of Cherrapunji of nearly 4000 mm between first and second spot during July 31st is now reduced to around 2500 mm mark. In 2011, we had 55 stations which crossed 3500 mm mark till 15th August. This year the list has gotten shrunken to 27 stations. Apart from Cherrapunji, only HRF places from two states (Maharashtra 13 stations and Karnataka 13 stations) are in the list.

The 2011 link till 15.08.2011 is here - http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2011/08/all-india-swm-rainfall-from-01062011-to.html

Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 3500 mm)
  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 7529
  2. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 4833
  3. Kollur (Karnataka) - 4676
  4. Kitwade (Maharashtra) - 4619
  5. Amgaon (Karnataka) - 4541  
  6. Dajipur (Maharashtra) - 4311
  7. Amboli (Maharashtra) - 4304
  8. Tamini Ghat (Maharashtra) - 4180
  9. Gavali (Karnataka) - 4162
  10. Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 4103
  11. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) - 3958
  12. Mulshi Dam (Maharashtra) - 3923
  13. Dawadi Ghat (Maharashtra) - 3890 
  14. Kanakumbi (Karnataka) - 3888
  15. Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 3848
  16. Nilkund (Karnataka) - 3834
  17. Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) -3831
  18. Shiragaon Ghat (Maharashtra) - 3830
  19. Albadi (Karnataka) - 3800
  20. Kasari (Maharashtra) - 3775 
  21. Castle Rock (Karnataka) - 3716 
  22. Sitanadi (Karnataka) - 3657
  23. Kerveshe (Karnataka) - 3500
  24. Talacauvery (Karnataka) - 3500
  25. Navaja (Maharashtra) ~ 3500 
  26. Arendur (Karnataka) ~ 3500
  27. Mulikar (Karnataka) ~ 3500

Rains lashed for 3rd straight day around Chennai region

Rainfall figures in mm ending 8.30 am ending 16.08.2012


Kalavai  - 55
Cheyyar – 51
Shollinganallur (Sathyabama University) – 39
RK Pet Agro – 37
Chengelpet - 30
Kancheepuram  - 30
Kaveripakkam - 30
Tambaram - 20
Kelambakkam - 20
Tiruttani - 20
Madhavaram – 15
Tiruvallur – 14
RK Pet (IMD) – 14
Sriperumbudur - 10
Cheyyur - 10
Kalpakkam - 10
Arakonam - 10
Sholingur - 10
Nungambakkam (Kea Metsite) – 9
Kadambathur – 9
Taramani – 6
Poondi - 6
Kolapakkam (Back of Airport) – 6
Uttiramerur – 6
Nungambakkam (IMD) – 5
Poonamalle – 5
Madurantakam- 5

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Heavy Rain lashed Kanyakumari District in Tamil Nadu

Heavy Rain lashed at most places in the Kanyakumari district during 8.30 am ending 15.08.2012


Rainfall in mm

Neyyoor - 103
Kurunthancode - 73
Thuckalay - 46
Anaikidangu - 36
Mullanginavilai- 28
Kozhiporvilai - 24
Kuzhithurai - 22
Nagercoil - 21
Pechiparai Agro - 21
Thiruvattar - 19
Kottar - 18
Lower Kodayar - 17
Mylaudy - 13
Pechiparai Dam - 12
Boothapandy - 11
Kanyakumari - 8
Palmore - 7
Adaiyamadai - 7
Agastiswaram - 7   
Eraniel - 5
Upper Kodayar - 5
Aralvaimozhi - 5
Colachel - 3

Second Straight day Rain lashes Chennai

It rained in Anna Nagar pretty heavily after nearly a week. It badly missed rains past week.


Chennai and surrounding Region Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 15.08.2012

Tiruttani – 80
RK Pet Agro – 59
Sholingur – 50
Thiruvalangadu – 50
Arakonam – 40
Kadambathur – 39
Korrattur – 28
RK pet (IMD) – 28
Uthukkottai (Entry Point) – 25
Tiruvallur – 20
Tamaraipakkam – 18
Poondi Agro – 17
Poonamalle – 15
Ellapuram – 15
Katpadi – 12
Chembarbakkam – 8
Red Hills – 7
Puzhal – 7
Poondi Lake – 6
Cholavaram – 5
Madhavaram – 3
Kolapakkam (near Chennai AP) – 3
Nungambakkam (Chennai City) – 2

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Thunder Storm rocks Chennai and surrounding places

After 7 days of daily Thunder Storms, Chennai had a lull for 2 days. But the rainfall from yesterday evening till 14.08.2012 at 8.30 changed everything. Everyone in Chennai weather blog slept assuming there will be no further rains in the night after superb showers in the evening. But unlike evening the early morning TS gained strength to Strength and covered almost all the area of Chennai.

Rainfall in mm

Meenambakkam (Chennai Airport) – 50
Kolapakkam (Back of Chennai Airport) – 50
RK pet (Agro) – 42
Tambaram – 40
Sholingur – 40
Marina Beach – 30
Mahabalipuram – 30
Arakonnam – 30
Korattur – 28
Nungambakkam (Chennai City) – 27
Taramani – 27
Chembarbakkam – 27
Cheyyur – 26
Kattupakkam (near SRM Univeristy) – 25
Kea Metsite (Nungambakkam) – 21
Kancheepuram – 20
Thiruvalangadu – 20
Poonamalle – 19
RK pet (IMD) – 18
Guindy – 17
Shollinganallur – 15
Tiruvallur – 15
Uttiramerur – 15
Kadambathur – 15
Chengalpattu – 10
Maduranthagam – 10
Sriperumbudur – 10
Kelambakkam – 10

It was surprise that Nunga did not miss out. Others who missed out yesterday are -

Tamaraipakkam – 6
Madurantakam – 5
Poondi – 4
Ennore – 4
Cholavaram – 4
Madhavaram – 2
Avadi – 2
Puzhal – 1
Red Hills – 0

Sunday, August 12, 2012

No stopping of rains in Kollur in Karnataka, gets 1500 mm in last 9 days

This was supposed to be the weak phase of MJO for Southern Peninsula. The intensity of rains have been reduced in Maharashtra. However, in Karnataka and Kerala it has just started pouring see the last week cumaltive per day rainfall in the IMD Monsoon page. Not even IMD or other models predicted such heavy rains for these two states particularly Karnataka. Two places, Kollur which along with Agumbe and Hulikal dominated rainfall in 2011 got heavy rainfall  for past one week.

Kollur rainfall in mm in last 9 days
04.08.2012 - 115
05.08.2012 - 90
06.08.2012 - 190
07.08.2012 - 201
08.08.2012 - 180
09.08.2012 - 193
10.08.2012 - 166
11.08.2012 - 173
12.08.2012 - 190

Total 1500 mm in last 9 days and 4500 mm for the 2012 SWM season

Agumbe rainfall in mm in last 9 days
04.08.2012 - 119
05.08.2012 - 66
06.08.2012 - 164
07.08.2012 - 224
08.08.2012 - 101
09.08.2012 - 167
10.08.2012 - 170
11.08.2012 - 130
12.08.2012 - 105

Total 1250 mm in last 9 days and 4780 mm for the 2012 SWM season

Friday, August 10, 2012

7th straight day Thunderstorms visits Chennai

Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 10.08.2012


Poonamalle –39
Guindy - 30
Korattur - 25
Uthukottai - 23
Pallipattu - 20

Chennai City (Nungambakkam) –14
Chennai AP (Meenambakkam) – 14
Taramani - 14
Madhavaram – 10

Tambaram – 10
Tiruttani – 10
Tiruvalangadu - 10
Tiruvallur –9
Kolapakkam - 9
Tamaraipakkam –7

Chembarabakkam - 7
Poondi - 5
Cholavaram - 4

Avadi - 3

Thursday, August 9, 2012

6th Straight day of rains for Chennai Region, However, it was widespread yesterday.

Rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 09.08.2012

6th Straight day of Rains in areas around Chennai….As usual Nunga missed….Hats off to Rajesh Sir who personally said to me that it would rain widespread only on 8th night for Chennai Region

Madurantakkam – 78
Chengelpet – 50
Mahabalipuram – 40
Kattupakkam – 35
Sholliganallur – 34
Ponneri – 30
Kancheepuram – 30
Arakonnam – 30
Wallajah – 30
Uttiramerur – 28
Kalavai – 27
Cheyyur – 26
RK pet – 25
Poondi – 21
Ellapuram – 21
Kaveripakkam – 20
Virinjipuram – 16
Puzhal – 14
Chennai AP (Meenambakkam) – 14
Tamaraipakkam – 13
Guindy – 12
Madhavaram – 12
Kadambathur – 11
Maduranthagam – 10
Tambaram – 10
Tiruttani – 10
Pallipattu – 10
Sholingur – 10
Kolapakkam – 9
Ennore – 9
Redhills – 9
Korattur – 9
Poonamalle – 8
Tiruvallur – 8
Katpadi – 8
Avadi – 7
Cholavaram – 7
Kea metsite (Nungambakkam) – 6
Chennai City (Nungambakkam) – 4

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Massive Rains in Karnataka (Drought to Floods within 3 days)

The monsoon that played traunt for more than a year is in full vigour in western Karnataka reviving the lost hopes of people. The Malnad belt of the state from Belgaum district to Kodagu and coastal areas received heavy rains. Karnataka as a state recording a whopping 175% surplus across the four geographical regions in the last 24-hours ending 8.30am today. Malnad and coastal parts including Dakshina Kannada bore the brunt recording 360% and 152% departure respectively from normal weighted average while south-interior and north-interior Karnataka received 86% and 34% surplus rainfall.

24 hrs Rainfall Figures

Some of the 24hrs rainfall in mm ending 8.30 am on 07.08.2012 are as follows

Karauru  - 337
Indabettu - 308

Mastikatte  - 265
Yadur - 238
Hulikal - 235
Kammardi - 229
Mani  - 228 
Nilkund 225
Nariyandada - 222
Thirthahalli - 210
Umbalamani - 203
Devanahalli - 203
Bandal - 203
Kollur - 201
Kalasa - 200
Kalasa - 197
Sringeri - 196
Meguda - 196
Hebri - 190
Perdur- 190
Siddapura -  187 
Subramanya  - 187
Vanagur - 187
Dharmasthala  - 180 
Hosanagara - 180
Jayapura - 180
Koppa - 180 
Talaguppa - 170
Agumbe - 172

Other Massive Rainfall Figures

Some of the other massive rainfall stats in past two days are as follows as on 8.30 am on 06.08.2012 -

Birunani - 559 mm
Parakatageri - 508 mm
Teralu - 305 - mm 
 
Further, Nagara recorded 746 mm rainfall in 48 hrs ending 05.08.2012 
 
Bisile, Kempuhole, Moorukannugudda, Kenchanakumari and the Bajemane reserve forest received 600 mm of rainfall in the 36 hours ending 05.08.2012
 
Dam Levels 

Linganamakki reservoir has reached 1,779 feet against the maximum level of 1,819 feet
Kabini stood at 2,277.35 feet as against the maximum of 2,284 feet.
Harangi reservoir reached 2,856.79 feet against the full level of 2,859 feet
Bhadra reservoir too increased to 150.50 tmc ft  against maximum of 186 feet

Kitwade crosses 4000 mm for the SW monsoon 2012 ahead of Agumbe, Gaganbavada, Kollur, Amboli and Dajipur

The August rainfall in the past 6 days, from 1st August to 6st August, 2012, many places in Maharashtra has got very very heavy rainfall. Kitwade in Maharashtra crossed 4000 mm for SWM 2012 ahead of other heavy weights Agumbe, Gaganbavada, Kollur, Amboli and Dajipur. It is only the second station behin
 
Rainfall in mm (Min - 750 mm) 
 
Kitwade  -  1080 mm
01.08.2012 - 100
02.08.2012 - 110
03.08.2012 - 161 
04.08.2012 - 283
05.08.2012 - 238
06.08.2012 - 188  
 
Amboli  - 865 mm
01.08.2012 - 52
02.08.2012 - 65
03.08.2012 - 228
04.08.2012 - 160
05.08.2012 - 175
06.08.2012 - 185 

Mahabaleshwar - 841 mm
01.08.2012 - 244
02.08.2012 - 242
03.08.2012 - 131
04.08.2012 - 101
05.08.2012 - 42
06.08.2012 - 81

Mulshi Dam -   813 mm
01.08.2012 - 280
02.08.2012 - 178
03.08.2012 - 80
04.08.2012 - 87
05.08.2012 - 76
06.08.2012 - 112

Shirgaon Ghat - 810 mm
01.08.2012 - 280
02.08.2012 - 180
03.08.2012 - 80
04.08.2012 - 90
05.08.2012 - 70
06.08.2012 - 110

Tamini Ghat - 780 mm
01.08.2012 - 270
02.08.2012 - 200
03.08.2012 - 70
04.08.2012 - 120
05.08.2012 -  60
06.08.2012 -  60
 
The Top Maharashtra SWM rainfall places (minimum 3000 mm) till 6th August, 2012
  1. Kitwade - 4161
  2. Dajipur - 3644
  3. Amboli - 3599 
  4. Patagon - 3598
  5. Gaganbawada - 3496
  6. Sangameshwar - 3449
  7. Tamini Ghat - 3261
  8. Kasari - 3210
  9. Mulshi Dam - 3208
  10. Shiragon Ghat - 3130
  11. Mahabaleshwar - 3029
  12. Dawadi - 3005

Monday, August 6, 2012

Nagara in Karnataka records 746 mm rainfall in 2 days

Nagara located in Hosanagara Taluk in Shimoga District in Karnataka  recorded 746 mm rainfall in 48 hrs. Hulikal, the king of South India is located just 15kms from Nagara. It is the only place after Cherrapunji to record two 300+ mm rainfall in 2012. Hulikal figures is not published daily by IMD.




Here is the comparison of rainfall between Agumbe, Kollur and Nagara in last two days

Nagara - 746 mm
05.08.2012 - 437 mm
04.08.2012 - 309 mm

Kollur - 205 mm

05.08.2012 - 115 mm
04.08.2012 - 90 mm

Agumbe - 185 mm
05.08.2012 - 119 mm
04.08.2012 - 66 mm

Top 24 hrs rainfall recorded in 2012 Minimum (300 mm)
  1. Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 26.06.12 – 772 mm 
  2. Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 15.07.12 – 543 mm 
  3. Srinagar City, Uttrakhand - 14.07.12 - 532 mm
  4. Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 25.06.12 – 461 mm
  5. Nagara, Karnataka - 05.08.12 - 437 mm
  6. Chebri, Tripura - 16.06.12 - 411 mm
  7. Sonkatch, Madhya Pradesh - 29.07.12 - 410 mm
  8. Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 09.06.12 – 396 mm
  9. Malvan, Maharashtra – 19.06.12 – 386 mm
  10. Khowai, Tripura – 16.06.12 – 369 mm
  11. Dapoli, Maharahtra – 18.06.12 – 337 mm
  12. Kayamkulam, Kerala - 05.05.12 - 334 mm
  13. Gossaigaon, Assam - 26.06.12 - 330 mm
  14. Kokrajhar, Assam - 26.06.12 - 320 mm
  15. Dhubri, Assam – 16.06.12 – 315 mm
  16. Mount Abu, Rajasthan - 11.07.12 - 313 mm
  17. Falakata, West Bengal – 17.06.12 – 312 mm
  18. Nagara, Karnataka - 04.08.12 - 309 mm
  19. Diana, West Bengal - 15.07.2012 - 303 mm
  20. Cherrapunji, Meghlaya – 13.07.12 – 302 mm
  21. Williamnagar, Meghlaya – 09.06.12 – 301 mm

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Monsoon Chasers - India waits for IMD's most expensive 2017 monsoon prediction model

One day in 1988, life changed for the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a hoary institution founded in 1875 by a British government growing increasingly panicky after three years of bad weather destroyed harvests in its most valuable colony.

A tropical cyclone in Calcutta (now Kolkata) in 1864, and two famines in 1866 and 1871 due to the failure of the monsoon were enough to persuade the British that a single organization was needed, one that would peer into the skies, across the seas and into the ground, and divine the likelihood of another meteorological disaster.

The IMD headquarters in New Delhi.(Pradeep Gaur/Mint)
The IMD headquarters in New Delhi.

Like many institutions founded in the early days of British rule in India, IMD was based in Kolkata. It was headed by Henry Francis Blanford, a paleontologist, weather watcher and member of the Royal Geographical Society. For the next 113 years, headed by men from Gilbert Walker, considered by many to be the “brightest meteorologist ever”, to S.K. Banerji, the first Indian boss of the organization, from British rule through independence, IMD would attempt to predict the future, for the ears of the government only. India Meteorological Department is charged with forecasting the annual monsoon. So why do its predictions go spectacularly wrong sometimes? Here’s a look.

That day in 1988, under then director general S.M. Kulshrestha, India’s weather office dropped its habitual veil of secrecy and went public with its prediction that the monsoon rains that year would be “excellent”. It was right. Rainfall was indeed above average that summer. Since then, the Met department, as it is popularly known across the country, has lost its reputation as a reliable soothsayer—if it ever had one.
Officials measure wind data at the IMD observatory in Pune.
Officials at the IMD observatory in Pune.

Even in 1988, IMD wasn’t exactly the embodiment of accuracy: for instance, it told the government that rains would be normal in 1986. They were 13% below normal. It said the loss would be made up in 1987, which ended up seeing India’s worst drought.
 
Still, IMD’s debut on the public stage set off a chain of events that changed the way the department approached the iffy science of weather forecasting and the equally recondite art of engaging with the public.
Since then, the weather office has weathered the phenomenon called El Nino, once a minor variable and now an entire equation unto itself; two reworkings and an abandonment of its trusted weather models; and lay and scientific criticism of its forecasts. It has also promised to abandon its century-old reliance on statistics-based forecasting for the emerging global trend of so-called dynamical forecasting.

In 2012, when every day seems to push India closer to a drought, despite the weather office’s insistence that the weak rainfall has not yet reached drought levels, it looks like IMD would’ve been better off not going public with its forecast in the first place, but in the late 1980s, the step might not have seemed so drastic. “It wasn’t the media spectacle that we see today,” said Ajit Tyagi, a former director general of IMD, referring to the department’s annual forecast and updates. “It never made it to the papers and was just an internal memo to the government.”

Predicting the unpredictable
Earthquake data being recorded at IMD’s seismological observatory.
IMD’s seismological observatory.
 
The overwhelming importance of the south-west June-September monsoon, which provides 70-80% of the country’s annual rainfall, to both Indian agriculture and the economy has made it the focus of the efforts of at least three generations of meteorologists—both Indian and British. While the relative contribution of agriculture to the Indian economy may have come down from well over 60% in colonial India to a little over 14% in 2011, it continues to be the main source of employment for more than 60% of India’s workforce.

While droughts no longer necessarily mean famines, a poorly distributed network of reservoirs, an inefficient system transporting agricultural produce from farm to market, and the lack of the right kind of seeds and fertilizers mean that poor rain often translates into higher food prices, and hits hard rural households, many of which make a living from farming. The monsoon, then, is a key variable in economic calculations.

The monsoon has always posed a strange conundrum: it is a sea breeze so regular that in three out of every five years of the 100-odd that meteorologists have maintained actual weather records, the total rainfall has remained within 10% of 88cm. Yet, even a seasoned forecaster aided by gluttonous supercomputers measuring windspeeds at various heights, surface temperatures, heat patterns in the Pacific as well as the Indian Ocean, can’t predict, even in late May, whether India will receive normal rains in June. For over a century, IMD’s rather thankless task has been to navigate a fine line between the certain and the unknowable.

An operator observes earthquake data at IMD’s seismological observatory in Pune.
An operator observes earthquake data at IMD’s seismological observatory in Pune.
 
Today’s forecasters at IMD are usually postgraduates in science who have to pass an examination administered by the Union Public Service Commission. Once admitted, they can choose to be a forecaster or an instrumentalist, specialists who manage weather stations.Those who choose to be forecasters follow in a long line of weather predictors.
 
Since the 1680s, European scientists such as Edmond Halley—after whom Halley’s Comet is named—have expounded on the patterns of the monsoon. However, in 1909, it took the genius of a Cambridge mathematician Gilbert Walker, later IMD director general, to draw a statistical relationship between the Indian monsoon and the snowfall in the Himalayas in May; the atmospheric pressure in South America between March and May, and Mauritius in May; and the rainfall in Zanzibar in April and May. Though he never lived to see his theory confirmed, Walker was the first to suggest that the Indian monsoon was the net result of a global, interconnected tussle between the atmosphere and the ocean.

Walker presciently noticed that a cyclical swing in atmospheric pressure between Darwin in Australia and Tahiti in the western Pacific Ocean had something to do—he couldn’t precisely say what—with the occurrence of droughts over India; the phenomenon became known as the Southern Oscillation.

The southern sea breeze
In the 1950s, Walker’s ideas were linked to another centuries-old anomaly, wherein every three-seven years the waters in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru turned unusually warm, especially around Christmas, and disrupted fish catches, an irksome phenomenon that South American fishermen referred to as El Nino. “Among the great discoveries of meteorology was noting that El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are related, a coupling of the sea and sky, and to think that this was intimately connected to droughts over India, several thousands of kilometres away, was fantastic,” said Krishna Kumar, a senior scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, who’s studied the ENSO phenomenon for decades.

A self-recording rain gauge being tested at an IMD observatory
A self-recording rain gauge being tested at an IMD observatory
 
The Indian who accidentally brought the Southern Oscillation and the El Nino indices to public attention and midwifed IMD’s exposure to its inclement future wasn’t a meteorologist. A cryogenic expert with the department of space, and then secretary in the department of science and technology, Vasant Gowarikar had an omnivorous appetite for science. He created a population prediction model and authored a comprehensive encyclopaedia on fertilizers. Gowarikar led the development of a weather model that crunched the magnificent unpredictability of the monsoon rainfall into 16 weather variables, including the North Atlantic Sea surface temperature and the El Nino ocean index, and in 1988 used this to make that first publicized forecast.

“When I became secretary in the department of science and technology, I found that 90% of the things were already there,” Gowarikar told Down To Earth magazine in a 1993 interview. “It was really a question of somebody who was not conditioned by the same mindset taking the lead.” Repeated attempts by Mint to reach the 79-year-old Gowarikar were unsuccessful. It was in the 1980s that the Southern Oscillation theory, which had fallen out of fashion with meteorologists, came back into vogue, with help from Gowarikar.

A scientific assistant marks water samples from various parts of India at the air pollution section of the Met department.
A scientific assistant marks water samples from various parts of India at the air pollution section of the Met department.
 
Walker may have invoked a handful of parameters, but Gowarikar took the lead at developing a forecast model with about 200 factors—some as strange as the surface temperature at De Bilt in Holland—all of which had been tested, sifted, abandoned, resurrected and statistically linked to the performance of the south-west monsoon. IMD in the course of time had shifted headquarters from Kolkata to Pune, then Shimla, and finally to Delhi in 1944.

Modernization
The weather office’s forecasting centre in the heart of Lutyens Delhi looks and is as futuristic as it should be. The visible part of this is a multitude of flatscreen monitors. The hidden part of it is the alliance IMD entered into with French weather agency Meteo France to harness trillions of bytes of supercomputing power to assimilate and predict data from across the world, to generate hourly and daily forecasts. Every day, the IMD website records where rainfall is likely across India, and, by evening, it’s possible to know exactly how much rainfall each district received during the day. “There’s been a great improvement in the way we’ve made data accessible to the general public,” said L.S. Rathore, current director general. “In fact, even Pakistan relies on our website for their monitoring and forecasting purposes.”

IMD has a network of around 6,000 rain gauges, of which it relies primarily on about 2,000. It has also invested substantially—no numbers are available—in transmitting the measurements of rainfall, windspeed, surface temperature and cloud patterns from India’s fringes to IMD’s district and state headquarters. “IMD was one of the first organizations to employ everything from telegrams to computerized switching networks, satellite transmission, etc.,” said S.C. Bhan, spokesperson for the agency in Delhi.

Previously, IMD forecasters would be buried in a flurry of charts detailing the exact windspeeds—down from the surface to the stratosphere—and rainfall data from the 2,000 or so stations that would gush in every four hours. “It was then a matter of calculated guesswork,” said A.K. Bhatnagar, a former deputy director general with IMD. “To prepare a usable forecast, you had to apply your experience.”That would mean knowing the local weather history and finding out if there were anomalies—such as a freak wind shear, or unexpected excess rain in a neighbouring district. In Met jargon, such forecasts were called “synoptic forecasts”, and, even today, IMD places a premium on synoptic forecasts for determining the likelihood of rain, storms and cyclones. However, the punctiliousness of its data gathering and the sturdiness of its website notwithstanding, several experts say IMD is yet to achieve the original objective with which the British founded it: forecasting a drought.

In 2007, IMD introduced a new statistical forecasting system called ensemble forecasting, using five predictors from April research and three more from May. In an approach that would befuddle even Wall Street financial wizards, combinations of all parameters are mathematically crunched. Using the first five parameters, it throws up 31 different models, and those which best tally rainfall during a common period in the past are selected. Each of them is given a further statistical weight, just as food articles and consumer goods are given different weights in computing inflation, which in turn generates a new hypothetical model. “That’s the one we finally use,” said Madhavan Rajeevan, a pioneer of the ensemble technique and a former head of IMD’s forecasting division. “This, too, couldn’t predict the 2009 drought, but it did indicate that rainfall would be dramatically less. That’s a victory in itself.” Still, IMD has plenty of critics. “It doesn’t make scientific sense to encapsulate all Indian rainfall into one number,” said a senior weather scientist, who didn’t want to be identified. “No other country reduces its rainfall to a number; most of them give regional indicators.”

Perhaps it’s criticism like this that’s resulted in a Rs. 400 crore programme called the monsoon mission. The aim is to develop a model that relies on actual weather conditions on any given day, rather than statistics, to simulate the output. “We need as much data as quickly as possible, more weather radars, automatic weather stations as well as massive amounts of compu ting power,” said Shailesh Nayak, secretary, ministry of earth sciences. “More than half of it is done.”Perhaps that model, which officials say will be running by 2017, can finally resolve the century-long quest to master the monsoon.

Source  - Live mint
Author - jacob.k@livemint.com
Photographs - Abhijit Bhatlekar/Mint

South West Monsoon 2012: Is it one of the worst in six decades?

The cumulative rainfall data (June 1 – July 30 2012) of the three worst monsoon  are as follows

2002 - 326 mm
1972 - 343 mm
2012 - 354 mm

With drought conditions prevailing in most parts of India, Monsoon 2012 is set to be the worst in the last 65 years. Although it has been almost eight weeks since monsoon first hit the coast of Kerala, the cumulative rainfall data (June 1 –July 30 2012) poses a dismal situation. Rainfall is 20% below normal in India which certainly affects the economy as a whole including the ‘Aam aadmi’.

A Zee Research Group (ZRG) analysis reveals that in terms of rainfall received, India will face the third worst monsoon since independence. India has received 354 mm of rainfall in between June 1 to 30 July 2012. In 2002, during the same period, India received 326 mm of rainfall, which is the worst rainfall figure, followed by 343 mm in 1972.Until July 30 this year the overall monsoon has been 20% less than average rainfall in the country. Northwest India has faced the maximum deficit of 39%, followed by South Peninsula 22%, Central India 20% and East and Northeast India 10% respectively.Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD) expressed his concerns over rainfall deficit situation prevailing in the country. “States like Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab have badly been affected due to scanty rains in the last two month of monsoon period,” he averred.However, the Saurashtra-Kutch, Diu is the most affected region in terms of rainfall deficit (77%), followed by Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi pack (69%), Punjab (66%), West Rajasthan (63%), West Uttar Pradesh (55%) and Gujarat (54%) respectively.
 
Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan came across as being the worst hit states in terms of rains received. The repercussion is already evident as these three states together account for about 50% of oilseed production, 40% of pulses production and over 57% of cotton production.Rainfall directly affects sowing which in turn affects crop production. The deficient and unevenly distributed rainfall has invariably been associated with decline in crop and this leads to the increase in the prices of essential commodities.
 
With deficit rainfall conditions prevailing in the last two months, the prices of essential commodities have risen sharply in the last one year.The retail price of Gram Dal has jumped 72% to Rs 65 as on July 30, 2012, compared to Rs 38 in the corresponding period last year. During the last one year, Mustard oil prices has increased to 32%,followed by Groundnutwith 31per cent, Gur 20%, Sugar 16%, Sunflower 15% , Soya oil 14.5%, Vanaspati 14.29% and Tea 13% .
 
Source: DNA  Newspaper

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Rainfall Toppers in SWM 2012 (01.06.2012 to 31.07.2012)

 
After 61 days into monsoon, Cherrapunji lead with the second placed southern king Agumbe is nearly 4000 mm. (SWM 2011 comparative figures till July 31). There are only 20 stations which crossed 2500 mm mark till July 2012, compared to 99 stations in 2011. Which is 5 times lesser places than last year and shows the failure of the monsoon.

Maharashtra tops with 9 stations, followed by West Bengal 5 and Karnataka 3 station. There is no entrant from Goa, Kerala and Tamil Nadu this year. 

Rainfall in mm (Minimum of 2500 mm)
  1. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 7070
  2. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 3397
  3. Dajipur (Maharashtra) - 3179
  4. Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 3132 
  5. Kitwade (Maharashtra) - 3085 
  6. Gaganbawda (Maharashtra) -3080
  7. Patgaon (Maharashtra) - 3044
  8. Kollur (Karnataka) - 2880
  9. Amboli (Maharashtra) - 2845
  10. Chepan (West Bengal) - 2820
  11. Kasari (Maharashtra) - 2755
  12. Passighat (Arunachal Pradesh) - 2739
  13. Gazoldoba (West Bengal) - 2710
  14. Gokarna (Karnataka) - 2630
  15. Hasimara (West Bengal) -2620
  16. Barobhisa (West Bengal) - 2530
  17. Kumargram (West Bengal) - 2510
  18. Gossaigaon (Assam) - 2500 
  19. Tamini (Maharashtra) - 2500
  20. Dawadi (Maharashtra) - 2500


All figures compiled with limited data and IMD resources. Other places such as Mawsynaram, Hulikal, would have also have made it to the list. Next cutoff list is 3500 mm (to be published on 15th August 2012). 


The state wise top 5 places. This covers only the states which has Heavy Rainfall Sations (HRF).

State-wise Toppers (Rainfall in mm)

Meghlaya
  1. Cherrapunji  - 7070
  2. Williamnagar -2130
  3. Jowai - 2020
  4. Baghmara - 1410
  5. Nongostin - 1360
 Arunachal Pradesh
  1. Passighat -2739
  2. Tirap - 1740
  3. Tuting -1710
  4. Tezu -1530
  5. Itanagar - 1520 
Assam
  1. Gossaigaon 2500
  2. Kokrajhar - 2120
  3. Kajalgaon -2030
  4. Chouldhowaghat - 1610
  5. Dhubri - 1430
West Bengal
  1. Chepan - 2820
  2. Gazoldoba - 2710
  3. Hasimara -2620
  4. Barobhisa - 2530
  5. Kumargram - 2510
Maharashtra
  1. Dajipur - 3179
  2. Sangameshwar - 3132 
  3. Kitwade - 3085 
  4. Gaganbawda -3080
  5. Patgaon - 3044
Maharashtra (Ghats)
  1. Tamini - 2500
  2. Dawdi - 2500 
  3. Pratapgad -2390
  4. Navaja -2340
  5. Shirgaon -2330
Goa
  1. Pernem -2396
  2. Valpoi - 2295
  3. Quepem - 2233
  4. Mapusa -1850
  5. Panaji - 1793
 Karnataka
  1. Agumbe - 3397
  2. Kollur -2880
  3. Gokarna - 2630
  4. Kadra - 2380
  5. Nilkund - 2230
Kerala
  1. Vadakara - 1770
  2. Neeriamangalam - 1420
  3. Kudulu -1310
  4. Hosdurg -1240
  5. Kannur -1193
 Tamil Nadu
  1. Chinnakallar - 1520
  2. Devala -1430
  3. Sholayar - 1114
  4. Valparai - 1094
Mizoram
  1. Hnahthial - 1540
  2. Lowngtlai - 1120
  3. Saiha - 1010
Sikkim
  1. Ranipool - 1640
  2. Gangtok - 1547
  3. Tadong - 1230


Many visitors have requested to include the driest places toppers. I have tried my best collect information from reliable sources. Here is the list (Gujarat and Tamil Nadu tops the chart)

Driest Toppers Rainfall in mm Cut-off (less than 50 mm) 
  1. Pamban (Tamil Nadu) - 0 
  2. Thoothukudi (Tamil Nadu) - 0
  3. Abdasa (Gujarat) - 0 
  4. Lakhpat (Gujarat) - 0
  5. Nakhatrana (Gujarat) - 0
  6. Bhuj (Gujarat) - 2 
  7. Mandvi (Gujarat) - 3
  8. Anjar (Gujarat) - 4
  9. Halvad (Gujarat) - 4
  10. Palayamkottai (Tamil Nadu) - 5
  11. Bhachau (Gujarat) - 5 
  12. Jeur (Maharashtra) - 7
  13. Naliya (Gujarat) - 8
  14. Mundra (Gujarat) - 9 
  15. Coimbatore AP (Tamil Nadu) - 10
  16. Dhrol (Gujarat) - 10
  17. Okha (Gujarat) - 13
  18. Jodia (Gujarat) - 13
  19. Kandla (Gujarat) - 18
  20. Kolab (Orissa) - 22
  21. Sami (Gujarat) - 23
  22. Mandya (Karnataka) - 28 
  23. Mandal (Gujarat) - 29 
  24. Wav (Gujarat) - 29
  25. Dwarka (Gujarat) - 30
  26. Bhanvad (Gujarat) - 30 
  27. Santalpur (Gujarat) - 30
  28. Detroj (Gujarat)  31
  29. Visapur (Maharashtra) - 33 
  30. Dasada (Gujarat) - 33
  31. Madurai AP (Tamil Nadu) - 34
  32. Harij (Gujarat) - 34
  33. Jamnagar (Gujarat) - 35
  34. Rapar (Gujarat) - 35
  35. Karnal (Harayana) - 35
  36. Gandhidham (Gujarat) - 35 
  37. Kalpa (Himachal Pradesh) - 36
  38. Ghod (Maharashtra) - 36
  39. Mahuva (Gujarat) - 37 
  40. Dhrangadhra (Gujarat) - 37
  41. Thanjavur (Tamil Nadu) - 38
  42. Becharaji (Gujarat) - 38
  43. Srinagar (Jammu & Kashmir) - 39  
  44. Deodar (Gujarat) - 39
  45. Tondi (Tamil Nadu) - 40
  46. Bhabhar (Gujarat) - 42
  47. Ranavav (Gujarat) - 42
  48. Chikkanahalli (Karnataka) 42 
  49. Malia Miana (Gujarat) - 42
  50. Porbander (Gujarat) - 42
  51. Khambhalia (Gujarat) - 43 
  52. Paddhari (Gujarat) - 43
  53. JamJodhpur (Gujarat) - 44
  54. Saradihi (Orissa) - 45
  55. Jamkandorna (Gujarat) - 48
  56. Mysuru (Karnataka) - 50
  57. Quant (Gujarat) - 50
  58. Mahuva (Gujarat) - 50
  59. Gariadhar (Gujarat) - 50
  60. Wadhvan (Gujarat) - 50
  61. Udaygiri (Orissa) - 50
  62. Morbi (Gujarat) - 50 
  63. Kalol (Gujarat) - 50
  64. Chanasma (Gujarat) - 50

Friday, August 3, 2012

Monstrous Rainfall in Many places in Maharashtra in last 5 days with Mahabaleshwar getting 929 mm rainfall

In the past 5 days, from 30th July to 03rd August, 2012, many places in Maharashtra has got very very heavy rainfall, Here is the list

Rainfall in mm

Mahabaleshwar - 929 mm

30.07.2012 - 169
31.07.2012 - 143
01.08.2012 - 244
02.08.2012 - 242
03.08.2012 - 131

Shirgaon Ghat - 860 mm

30.07.2012 - 120
31.07.2012 - 200
01.08.2012 - 280
02.08.2012 - 180
03.08.2012 - 80

Mulshi Dam -  859 mm

30.07.2012 - 117
31.07.2012 - 204
01.08.2012 - 280
02.08.2012 - 178
03.08.2012 - 80


Tamini Ghat - 760 mm

30.07.2012 - 80
31.07.2012 - 140
01.08.2012 - 270
02.08.2012 - 200
03.08.2012 - 70

Kitwade  -  650 mm

30.07.2012 - 194
31.07.2012 - 85
01.08.2012 - 100
02.08.2012 - 110
03.08.2012 - 161