Saturday, November 8, 2014

NEM 2014 Summary - To sum up Systems form October till November 20th (projected)

1. Cyclone Hudhud (10 to 14th October) - Perfect Cyclone made a landfall, close as a super cyclone.
As per IMD, the 1999 Orissa cyclone is the strongest storm to hit the Indian coast since 1891 with a wind speed of nearly 260 kmph and the  the second strongest storm was Phailin which hit Gopalpur in Odisha at a wind speed of 220 kmph. IMD says Hudhud is the 3rd most strongest Cyclone to make landfall since 1891 at a wind speed of 206km/hr These are some of the IMD officials who are spoiling the name of IMD without knowing facts. The 1964 Dhanushkodi cyclone, 1990 Andhra Cyclone,  1977 Andhra Cyclone, Tyhoon Gay 1989 (Andhra) all made landfall with over 220 km/hr winds. All were Super Cyclones.  Tamil Nadu did not get any rains from Hudhud.

Coming to Hudhud with over 200 km/hr winds and rainfall of 500 mm was reported in some places in AP in two days. Orissa too got blinding rains of over 400 mm at some places in 2 days.  Places in Madhya Pradesh too reported 300 mm in a day. The rains were right upto Uttar Padesh. Nepal got surprise hit and caused Avalanches.

2.NEM onset and Comrin-Mannar-Sri lanka Circulation (16-24th October) - stood like a wall
Long lasting system like the WML in Andhra Pradesh in 2013. It stood like a wall and gave continous rains. The places in Tirunelveli / Tuticorin got over 500 mm rains. Right from Kanyakumari to Chennai got widespread rains. Chennai got some 300 mm rains from this system. The dry regions of Thoothukudi and Tirunelvei cannot be called as drought hit regions anymore.

3. Cyclone Nilofer - (25-30th October) - landfall was never there
It intensified in open waters, when it was close to Indian Coast as a Depression. The wind discontinuity gave Coimbatore, Theni, Kanyakumari, Madurai, trichy, Nilgiris and Tuticorin all got good rains. Some places in Trichy close to 200 mm in a day. The cyclone excited many weather freaks like us in Chennai, from Mumbai, Gujarat and also Pakistan. But the end was written before. It went into very very high VWS and got sliced off. Oman got more rains than Pakistan and Gujarat.

4.Tamil Nadu Circulation (November 1st to 4th) - Gave moderate rains
SW bay Circulation persisted close to TN and gave good rains for a day or two to Chennai. Madurai got 150 mm from this system. Many other places from Kanyakumari, Theni, Tirunelveli too got 100-150 rainfall.

5.Deep Depression (November 4th- till date) - Wrapped by Dry Air and cut-off by Vertical Wind shear  
The elonagted trough from north TN to Andaman created this Depression. It caught all models off track, they showed Burma, Bangaldesh, Odisha, West Bengal and North AP. Wrapped by Dry Air and cut-off by Vertical Wind shear, the end was known to everyone. The system will come to TN coast as a very weak low. Some places in South AP may get around 40-60 mm rainfall from this system. North TN including Chennai will also get light rains on 9/10th.

6. Next System (November 12th to 15th) - Has to cross Major hurdle of VWS  
The system was expected for TN crash as a significant cyclone but all models have scaled it down. It has to pass major hurdle of high Wind shear. It seems we wont get Ashoba cyclone very easily. Even it weakens. It will give good rains to Chennai and TN as it will be rain filled system. Rains can be expected from 12th November.

7. Future Low (November 21st expected )
Too early to speak. But if it forms it will affect TN and Sri Lanka