GFS predicts Two Cyclones in the next two weeks in North Indian basin

The most important South West Monsoon (SWM) has withdrawn with less number of cylones in 2011. However, the North East Monsoon (NEM) has simultaneously set in. A near cyclone has already crossed the coast of Bangladesh/Myanmar last week. Most models predict above normal rains for this year's NEM.

Renowned model - GFS is predicting two cyclone in either seas surrounding Indian peninsula. One each in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Arabian Sea Cyclone expected near Pakistan coast on 3rd November

The First storm is taking the same route which Cyclone Phet 2010 took. It kisses the Arabian peninsula and travels west crossing Pakistan / Indian (Gujarat) coast. The Pakistan/Indian areas of Gujarat and Rajasthan which have already got more than their normal rains, can rejoice with this un-expected cyclone with the rains it brings. The wind speed are expected to be at 100 km/hr. This system is already in the process of forming, a Low pressure Area (LPA) has already formed. JTWC, NRL Navy & FNMOC have already started to track this system. The sea surface temperature (SST) is also ripe for a cyclone. The system is presently located at 7.6N 64.5E and the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained surface winds are 15 knots.

A Very Severe cyclone is expected near Tamil Nadu coast on 10th November.

This is very early to comment at this future cyclone. However the storm looks scary. If the storm forms in the same intensity the GFS model predicts, it will be one of the strongest cyclone to cross Tamil Nadu coast. Winds are expected over 150 km/hr. Hope the Government takes necessary precautions at that time. As of now not much information is available. So lets see how accurate GFS model is.

Recent Tamil Nadu Cyclones and its awesome radar images

Deep Depression (October 26-29, 2005)






































Significant amounts of rainfall recorded in Tamil Nadu are

27-10-2005
Chennai 27, Chennai AP 21, and Red Hills 13 cm

28-10-2005
Tiruvallur and Poondi 27 cm, Red Hills 24 cm, Chembarambakkam 23 cm, Tamaraipakkam 22 cm, Chennai, Cholavaram, Korattur 16 cm, Chennai AP 15 cm and Tambaram 13 cm
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Cyclone Baaz (November 28- December 02, 2005)





































Significant amounts of rainfall recorded in Tamil Nadu are

03-12-2005
Tambaram 31 cm, Chennai AP 28 cm, Thiruvallur and Chennai 23 cm, Arakonam 21 cm, Sriperumbudur 18 cm, Chengalpattu and Red hills 15 cm, Tiruttani 14 cm, Poondi 13 cm, Ponneri 11 cm
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Cyclone Fanoos (06-10 December , 2005)










































Significant amounts of rainfall recorded in Tamil Nadu are

11-12-2005
Ramanathapuram 35 cm, Panruti 14 cm, Senkottai 13 cm, Pamban, Kamudhi and Madhukar 12 cm, Kadaladi 11 cm and Ambasamudram 10 cm

12-12-2005
Ambasamudram 17 cm, Senkottai 13 cm and Paramakudi 12 cm
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Depression (27-29 October, 2007)






































Significant amounts of rainfall recorded in Tamil Nadu are

29.10.2007

Chembarambakkam 18 cm, Red Hills 16 cm, Chennai and Chennai AP 14 cm, Cholavaram and Poondi 10 cm

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Cyclone Nisha (25-27 November, 2008)






































Significant amounts of rainfall recorded in Tamil Nadu are

25.11.2008

Thiruvidalmarthu 30 cm, Rameswaram 23 cm, Orathanadu 19 cm, Mayiladuthurai 17 cm, Tirukkattupalli and Pamban 15 cm, Tiruvaiyar and Thanjavur 14 cm, Sirkali and Kollidam 13 cm, Papanasam and Ramanathapuram 12 cm, Kumbakonam and Kattumannarkoil 11 cm, Sethiyathope Anicut and Chidambaram 10 cm.

26.11.2008
Orathanadu and Vedaranniyam 33 cm, Parangipettai and Chidambaram 28 cm Thiruvidalmarthu and Mayiladuthurai 26 cm, Sirkali 25 cm, Kattumannarkoil 24 cm, Cuddalore 22 cm, Sethiyathope Anicut and Kollidam 21 cm, Tiruthuraipndi and Nagapattinam-20 each, -18 each, Karaikal 19 cm, Puduchhery, Adirampattinam Tiruvarur and Kodavasal 18 cm, Nannilam 17 cm, Valangiman, Kumbhakonam, and Tarangambadi 15 cm, Needamangalam and Chembarabakkam 14 cm, Rameswaram, Papansam, Pattukkottai, Mannargudi, Muthupet and Jayamkondam 13 cm, Korattur, Adiramapatnam and Srimushnam 12 cm, Chryyur, Red Hills and Chennai AP 11 cm, Thanjavur, Anna University, Poondi, Cholvaram, Marina and Chennai 10 cm

27.11.2008
Orathanadu 66 cm, Thanjavur 53 cm, Vedaranyam 42 cm, Adiramapattinam 33 cm, Muthupet 30 cm, Kurungulam 28, Kumbakonam 26 cm, Pattukottai 23 cm, Madukkur 21 cm, Tiruvidaimarudur 20 cm, Thiruvaiyaru 19 cm, Papanasam, Tirukkattupalli 18 cm, Chennai AP, Chennai and Chembarabakkam 14 cm, Korattur 12 cm, Nagapattinam, Red Hills, Pondicherry 11 cm, Poondi, Cholavaram, Cuddalore, Tiruchy and Tiruttani 10 cm

28.11.2008

Chennai AP 28 cm, Chembarabakkam 24 cm, Anna University 23 cm, Cuddalore 22 cm, Puduchhery 21 cm, Tiruvallur 20 cm, Tamaraipakkam 19 cm, Chengelpet, Ayiyalur, Tanjavur, Vellore-17 each, Pallipattu, Villupuram, Poonamallee, Muthupet, Poondi, Korattur 16 cm, Lalgudi, Chettykulam, Padallur, Red Hills, Tiruchchirapalli 15 cm, Tozhudur, Nungambakkam, perumbalur, Parangipettai, Srimushnam, Tiruvaiyaru, Cholavaram, Ponneri, Vanur, Chennai 14 cm, Tambaram, Tirukkattupalli, Utheriramerur, Kodavasal, Gingee, Kancheepuram-13 each, kollidam, Grand Anicut, Arni, Polur, Tirutani, Vandavasi, Tindivanam, Sriperumbudur-12 each, Thiruvidalmarthu, Chryyar, Samayapuram, Ulundurpet, Marina (DGP Office)-11 each, Tiruchi, Tiruvarur, Valangiman, Vembavur, Kumbhakonam, Orathanadu 10 cm

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Cyclone Laila (17-22 May, 2010)



















































Significant amounts of rainfall recorded in Tamil Nadu are

20-05-2010
Ponneri 17 cm, Cholavaram 13 cm, Chennai, Anna University and Tamaraipakkam 11 each, Marina DGP Office 10 cm

Final Verdict: All India SWM winner is Amgaon with 8965 mm rainfall in 4 months

After 120 days of South West Monsoon, we finally have a winner and it is Amagaon from Karnataka. The legend Cherrapunji managed to cross 6000 mm mark. Amagaon & Hulikal were clear winners in 2011 SWM season.

I will still continue to rank the toppers in North East Monsoon too. From Tamil Nadu, Chinna Kallar made the list with 4800 mm rainfall. Watch out for this place in NEM. It gets rains in NEM too.

All India

Rainfall in mm's (Min 4000 mm)

1. Amgaon (Karnataka) - 8965
2. Hulikal (Karnataka) - 8319
3. Mastikatte (Karnataka) - 7561
4. Amboli (Maharashtra) - 7449
5. Kollur (Karnataka) - 7427
6. Agumbe (Karnataka) - 7405
7. Yadur (Karnataka) - 7309
8. Mani (Karnataka) - 7154
9. Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 6900
10. Kogar (Karnataka) - 6851
11. Gavali (Karnataka) - 6775
12. Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 6698
13. Mulshi Dam (Maharashtra) - 6471
14. Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 6464
15. Kerekatte (Karnataka) - 6259
16. Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 6140
17. Patagon Dam (Maharashtra) - 6027
18. Kasari Dam (Maharashtra) - 5870
19. Bhira (Maharashtra) - 5725
20. Kerveshe (Karnataka) - 5696
21. Kigga (Karnataka) - 5619
22. Radhanagri Dam (Maharashtra) - 5421
23. Koyna Dam (Maharashtra) - 5419
24. Kadra (Karnataka) - 5325
25. Lonavala Dam (Maharashtra) - 5318
26. Siddapura (Karnataka) - 5289
27. Gerosoppa (Karnataka) - 5206
28. Tillari (Maharashtra) - 5066
29. Gorkhana (Karnataka) - 5038 
30. Mandangad (Maharashtra) - 4840
31. Ajekar (Karnataka) - 4820
32. Valpoi (Goa) - 4817
33. Dapoli (Maharashtra) - 4813
34. Chinna Kallar (Tamil Nadu) - 4800
35. Chiplun (Maharashtra) - 4690
36. Vaibhavwadi (Maharshtra) - 4638
37. Rajapur (Maharashtra) - 4542
38. Kankavli (Maharashtra) - 4534
39. Bhagamandala (Karnataka) - 4532
40. Tulshi Lake (Maharashtra) - 4526
41. Sawantwadi (Maharashtra) - 4480
42. Mhasla (Maharashtra) - 4445
43. Karkala (Karnataka) - 4422
44. Lanja (Maharashtra) - 4402
45. Matheran (Maharashtra) - 4400
46. Walwand (Maharashtra) - 4393
47. Ratnagiri (Maharashtra) - 4369
48. Dodamarg (Maharashtra) - 4291
49. Quepem (Goa) - 4285
50. Sudhgad (Maharashtra) - 4282
51. Bhatkal (Karnataka) - 4266
52. Radhanagri (Maharashtra) -4262
53. Vadakara (Kerala) - 4231
54. Malvan (Maharashtra) - 4219
55. Tala (Mahrashtra) - 4170
56. Kudal (Maharashtra) - 4078
57. Honavar (Karnataka) - 4073
58. Pawna (Maharashtra) - 4057
59. Sanguem (Goa) - 4047
60. Ponda (Goa)  - 4042
61. Kottigehara (Karnataka) - 4031
62. Udupi (Karnataka) - 4026
63. Khed (Maharashtra) - 4002

Places such as Tamini, Hulikal, Nilkund, Mawsynarm, Poochippara, Walakkad and Castle Rock would have also made the above 4000 mm list.

Major Cities

Apart from the above places, the rank of India's Major Cities (Population above 2 million) for the SWM are as follows
Rainfall in mm SWM total

1. Mumbai – 3155
2. Kolkata – 1403
3. Bhopal - 1266
4. Surat – 1218
5. Lucknow – 1046
6. Indore - 982
7. Nagpur – 911
8. Patna - 871
9. Pune – 803
10. Chennai – 789
11. Ahmedabad – 728
12. Jaipur – 675
13. Delhi – 622
14. Bangalore – 540
15. Hyderabad – 528

For Chennai monsoon (NEM) is yet to begin, i am sure it will end second in the list behind for the year behind Mumbai.

Region wise SWM Toppers
With limited available data, the following are the region wise toppers (Rainfall in mm SWM total)

North India

1.Dharmashala (Himachal Pradesh) - 3180
2.Dehradun (Uttranchal)- 2426
3.Jammu (Kashmir) - 1238

Central India

1. Guna (Madhya Pradesh) - 1825
2.Jabalpur (Madhya Pradesh) - 1692
3.Raipur (Chhattisgarh) - 1562

North East India

1.Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 6140
2.Chouldhowaghat (Assam) - 3026

East India

1.Buxaduar (West Bengal) - 3380
2.Darjeeling (West Bengal) -2657
3.Gangtok (Sikkim) - 2540

North West India

1.Kaprada (Gujarat) - 2811
2.Pardi (Gujarat) - 2476
3.Umerpada (Gujarat) - 2441
4.Mt Abu (Rajasthan) - 2050

West India

1.Amboli (Maharashtra) - 7449
2.Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 6900
3.Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 6698
4.Mulshi Dam (Maharashtra) - 6471
5.Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 6464


South India

1.Amagaon (Karnataka) - 8965
2.Hulikal (Karnataka) - 8319
3.Mastikatte (Karnataka) - 7561 
4.Agumbe (Karnataka) - 7405
5.Kollur (Karnataka) - 7427

Islands

1.Maya Bundar (Anadaman) -3788
2.Long Island (Andaman) -2579
3.Port Blair (Andaman) -2297