Thursday, October 27, 2011

GFS predicts Two Cyclones in the next two weeks in North Indian basin

The most important South West Monsoon (SWM) has withdrawn with less number of cylones in 2011. However, the North East Monsoon (NEM) has simultaneously set in. A near cyclone has already crossed the coast of Bangladesh/Myanmar last week. Most models predict above normal rains for this year's NEM.

Renowned model - GFS is predicting two cyclone in either seas surrounding Indian peninsula. One each in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Arabian Sea Cyclone expected near Pakistan coast on 3rd November

The First storm is taking the same route which Cyclone Phet 2010 took. It kisses the Arabian peninsula and travels west crossing Pakistan / Indian (Gujarat) coast. The Pakistan/Indian areas of Gujarat and Rajasthan which have already got more than their normal rains, can rejoice with this un-expected cyclone with the rains it brings. The wind speed are expected to be at 100 km/hr. This system is already in the process of forming, a Low pressure Area (LPA) has already formed. JTWC, NRL Navy & FNMOC have already started to track this system. The sea surface temperature (SST) is also ripe for a cyclone. The system is presently located at 7.6N 64.5E and the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) is 1010 mb. The maximum sustained surface winds are 15 knots.

A Very Severe cyclone is expected near Tamil Nadu coast on 10th November.

This is very early to comment at this future cyclone. However the storm looks scary. If the storm forms in the same intensity the GFS model predicts, it will be one of the strongest cyclone to cross Tamil Nadu coast. Winds are expected over 150 km/hr. Hope the Government takes necessary precautions at that time. As of now not much information is available. So lets see how accurate GFS model is.


PWP said...

Interesting article!

Hope the Bay cyclone is not deadly. Here is a list of cyclones in November in ARB

Sarada said...


I am a student and am currently researching on Chennai rainfall statistics.

It would be great if any of you 'MET lovers' help me in understanding some statistics.

I looked through the NEM stats of Chennai in 2 websites: and ( page 67)

I noticed that NEM actual rainfall value varies drastically between the two sources. For example in 2009, KEA states the rainfall received ( in Numgambakkam)is 909.8 mm, while the IMD stats says it is 799.8 mm.

Please tell me what I am missing?

Thanks in advance for your time and effort


Anonymous said...

Hi sarada,

In 2009 Nungambakkam received 91cm from NEM...Meenambakkam received 90cm...KEA'S sight is 100% right..u can go with it